U.S. stock futures were mixed early Thursday as Wall Street awaited a heavy slate of economic data before the opening bell.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose about 0.2%, or roughly 105 points. S&P 500 futures edged higher. Nasdaq 100 futures slipped around 0.5%, weighed down by chipmakers extending Wednesday’s semiconductor selloff.

The split sets up a cautious open for the major stock indexes as traders position for two reports due at 8:30 a.m. ET and a marquee earnings release after the close.

June retail sales take center stage

The main event is the Census Bureau’s advance report on June retail sales. Economists expect headline sales rose 0.3% from May, cooling from a strong 0.9% gain the prior month. Excluding autos, sales are seen slipping 0.1%.

Retail sales are one of the most closely watched economic indicators because consumer spending drives roughly two-thirds of U.S. gross domestic product. A soft print would reinforce hopes that the Federal Reserve has room to ease, while an upside surprise could push Treasury yields higher and pressure rate-sensitive tech stocks.

“Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for May 2026 were $763.7 billion, up 0.9 percent from the previous month,” the Census Bureau reported last month — the elevated baseline June will be measured against.

Jobless claims and a busy data day

At the same time, the Labor Department releases weekly jobless claims. Initial claims are expected to hold near last week’s 215,000, a level that still points to a resilient labor market. Continuing claims, which stood at 1.814 million, will be watched for signs that laid-off workers are taking longer to find new jobs.

Three more releases round out the morning:

  • The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, seen improving to 15.0 from 10.3.
  • The NAHB housing market index, forecast to hold at 35.
  • Business inventories for May, expected to rise 0.3%.

Bonds, the Fed and this week’s inflation relief

The data lands as the bond market stabilizes. The 10-year Treasury yield hovered near 4.57% Thursday, down from a two-month high above 4.60% reached earlier in July, after this week’s softer-than-expected June inflation report. The more policy-sensitive 2-year yield has fallen harder, a sign traders have trimmed bets on additional Fed tightening.

Lower yields tend to support equities, particularly growth names, by reducing the appeal of fixed-income securities relative to stocks. But any hot data Thursday could quickly reverse that move.

Netflix headlines earnings after the bell

Earnings season shifts into higher gear. UnitedHealth reports before the open, and Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) releases second-quarter results after the close. Analysts expect revenue of about $12.58 billion, up nearly 14% from a year earlier, with earnings per share near $0.79. Investors will focus on advertising growth, subscriber additions and the company’s operating-margin outlook for the rest of 2026.

What to Watch for the Open

  • 8:30 a.m. ET — June retail sales (consensus +0.3%) and weekly jobless claims (consensus near 215,000).
  • Semiconductors — whether chip stocks stabilize after Wednesday’s slide or keep dragging on the Nasdaq.
  • Treasury yields — a move back above 4.60% on the 10-year would pressure rate-sensitive sectors.
  • After the close — Netflix earnings set the tone for Big Tech results due next week.

Bottom line: a firmer-than-expected retail sales number could lift cyclical stocks but revive rate worries, while a soft reading may hand growth stocks the edge. With futures pointing in opposite directions, the 8:30 a.m. data is likely to decide which way the open breaks.