Gold Price Forecast: Experts Reveal Where Gold Could Go Next

Where could the price of gold go, following its sharp rebound in recent sessions?

Spot gold prices surged on Friday, Aug. 21, 2026, above $4,600, hitting a three-month high, or their highest level since May 15.

Gold futures also attracted buying interest, approaching $4,650 an ounce.

How much further can gold rise? To answer these questions, Money.it spoke with managers, CEOs and analysts, comparing their views on gold prices over the short, medium and long term.

Gold: China demand is the key short-term driver, says Nigam Arora

One of the views comes from Nigam Arora, founder of the Arora Report, a financial research and newsletter firm that has published analysis on stocks, gold, oil, ETFs, currencies and other assets since 2007.

Arora said that “at present, our outlook for gold is positive in the short term, medium term and long term”, highlighting the importance of China:

“In the near term, the most important factor driving gold is not one of the traditional factors usually cited, such as inflation, the dollar, interest rates or geopolitical risk. In our analysis, gold’s rise from its lows has been driven primarily by investor demand from China”.

He explained that “the Chinese government has been taking additional measures to stem the flow of capital out of the country” adding that, “as Chinese investors anticipate that moving money abroad may become even more difficult, gold becomes an increasingly attractive vehicle for preserving wealth inside China”.

Arora said that “this is an important flow that many Western investors are not paying enough attention to”.

Gold price: watch India and Middle Eastern selling

“A second factor that could become increasingly important in the near to medium term”, Arora added, “is India, which remains one of the world’s largest consumers and importers of gold”.

But the problem is “that India’s foreign reserves have come under pressure from higher oil prices related to the Iran war”, meaning that “because India imports a large portion of its energy needs, the government has an incentive to reduce other imports to preserve foreign reserves”.

“Gold imports are an obvious target”, he said noting that, however, “import duties on gold are not popular in India, so any change in those duties could have a meaningful impact on physical demand and, in turn, on gold prices”

He also pointed to a third short-term factor: the possibility that gold sales from the Middle East could decline:

“A third near-term factor is whether gold selling from the Middle East subsides. Middle Eastern countries have traditionally been important buyers of gold, but war changes cash requirements. Countries that need liquidity to finance military expenditures or compensate for disruptions in oil revenue have been selling gold. If that selling subsides, an important source of supply will be removed from the market. On the other hand, if oil exports are further disrupted and governments need additional cash, more gold could come onto the market”.

Medium-term gold outlook: the biggest risk is a hawkish Fed surprise

Over the medium term, Arora said the two main drivers would be central-bank buying and U.S. interest rates, and therefore the monetary policy decisions taken by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

“Inflation, the dollar, geopolitical risk and investor sentiment will all matter” he said, “But I ultimately place greater weight on actual capital flows than on the narratives surrounding them”.

As for the U.S. central bank, while “a more dovish Federal Reserve and lower U.S. interest rates are already substantially discounted in the gold price, additional dovishness can provide support, but it is unlikely by itself to be a major new catalyst from current levels”.

“ The greater risk is on the other side because a hawkish Fed is not adequately discounted in gold prices ” and “if inflation or other economic conditions force the Federal Reserve to remain hawkish for longer than investors expect, or especially if the Fed is forced to raise interest rates, I would expect gold prices to move lower”, Arora warned.

This makes a hawkish surprise a greater risk for gold than further dovishness is likely to be a source of upside.

Arora described himself as “currently bullish on gold”, stressing that “there is not one argument, one economic report or one individual factor that would cause me to reverse that view”.

Gold price targets: short, medium and long term

Money.it also spoke with Mamadou Kwidjim Toure, CEO and founder of Ubuntu Tribe, who said “gold remains attractive, although I would be careful about chasing it after the sharp rise above $4,300 an ounce in recent weeks”.

He said that he sees gold trading “between $4,250 and $4,600 in the short term, with $5,000 looking achievable over the next 6 to 12 months ”, adding that “over a two- to three-year horizon, $5,500 would not surprise me”.

He identified central-bank buying as “the most important part of the story”.

Looking ahead, gold prices could also benefit from “lower US rates, especially if real yields come down and the dollar weakens".

Toure agreed, however, that part of the lower-rate scenario is already priced in, while the biggest threat would be “another inflation shock in the US” because “if inflation forces the Fed to keep policy tight for longer, real yields could rise again and the dollar could strengthen”. And “if central-bank buying also slows at the same time, I would become much more cautious on gold”.

Gold price: $4,000 is a key support level

Money.it also spoke with Brett Elliott, Director of Marketing at American Precious Metals Exchange (APMEX), who believes gold has found strong support at $4,000 during June, July and August.

If that floor holds, the metal could return to the $4,500-$4,900 range by year-end:

“Gold prices entered a downtrend after the run up in January earlier this year to $5,600 per troy ounce. Although gold declined nearly 30%, it appears to have found strong support at $4,000 per ounce throughout June, July and August. Historically, it’s not uncommon to see a steep decline in monthly prices midway through a bull market, and many of the factors that propelled gold to previous records remain intact. If the bottom is in, then gold returning to a range of $4,500 - $4,900 by end of year should be possible”.

His view remains “very bullish” partly because of the U.S. fiscal outlook: “As long as the US government continues to spend beyond its means, gold is structurally supported over long periods. That does not appear to be in danger of changing any time soon, though it would be a welcome reprieve”.

Elliott also told Money.it that if the gold price “falls again and drops convincingly below $4,000 per ounce it does raise the risk that the bull market ends prematurely - especially as we are entering a strong demand season for gold historically between India’s wedding season, Chinese New Year, and Christmas in America that typically results in higher jewelry sales ”.

Higher inflation, Treasury yields and dollar pose risks to gold

Also weighing in was Eugenia Mykuliak, Founder & Executive Director at B2PRIME, who focused on market uncertainty over what Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will do and say, in a situation where markets “may need time to adjust to his communication style”.

Mykuliak noted that the U.S. CPI rose in July from June, “also due to oil prices that have been rising again”, adding that the situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz “still remains unresolved”.

With Brent crude near $90 a barrel, B2PRIME Group’s founder and executive director warned that more persistent-than-expected inflation could prompt markets to anticipate a September rate hike: “That would likely lift Treasury yields and support the dollar, creating, in turn, pressure on gold”.

So, “the inflation data and signals from the Fed remain the most important indicators for gold, markets and the dollar”.

Gold at $6,000-$7,000: Western debt is a key driver

Philip van den Berge, Founder & CEO of Intrinsiqq, a stock market analysis platform, also said he is “bullish on gold”, laying out three scenarios for the short, medium and long term:

“In the short term, I think this consolidation phase will last for now, with factors driving the price up (such as the Fed decisions), as well as strong demand making sure the price doesn’t fall below the $4,100 region. For the medium term, we can expect a little more bullish target in the lower $5,000 end. Economic data, particularly cooling employment indicators, will eventually force a halt to monetary tightening. Once interest rates follow this development, more capital will shift into these defensive assets. For the long term, I could see gold reaching about $6k-$7k, mainly driven by the expanding debt levels of the western countries. Because governments cannot endlessly service massive debt burdens without inflating their currencies, gold acts as the ultimate denominator against fiat currency debasement”

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Van den Berge added that among the factors supporting the metal is “central-bank accumulation,” with “governments around the world buying record amounts of physical gold ” and banks that “are buying more gold to be protected against geopolitical consequences for foreign exchange reserves”.

The biggest threat to a sustained gold rally, he said, would be “a massive, structural boom in global productivity driven by breakthroughs in AI, automation, and commercialized clean energy”.

Such a scenario “could lower the cost of manufacturing and increase profits without increasing prices”. This scenario “could lead central banks to keep rates steady, prompting investors to shift capital from gold into highly profitable stocks and corporate bonds ”.

Ultimately, gold could suffer if the long-awaited U.S. rate cuts fail to materialize, particularly if the Fed keeps monetary policy restrictive for longer than expected.