How much higher can gold go, after its sharp recovery in the past few sessions? Spot prices for the ultimate safe-haven asset jumped in Friday, August 21, 2026 trading to more than $4,600, a three-month high, the strongest level since May 15. Gold futures were bought too, closing in on $4,650 an ounce.
So how far can the rally run? To answer that question, Money.it collected forecasts from managers, CEOs and analysts, comparing their views on the gold price over the short, medium and long term.
Gold: for Nigam Arora, Chinese demand is the main short-term driver
Start with the view of Nigam Arora, founder of the Arora Report, a financial newsletter and research firm that has published research on stocks, gold, oil, ETFs, currencies and other assets since 2007.
Arora said that «right now, our ratings on gold are positive in the short, medium and long term», stressing the importance of the China factor: «In the short term, the most important factor driving gold is not one of the traditional elements people generally cite, such as inflation, the dollar, interest rates or geopolitical risk. According to our analysis, gold’s rise off the lows has been driven primarily by demand from Chinese investors».
For Arora, the reason behind that buying spree also lies in the new measures Beijing has adopted to control capital flows, in other words in capital controls.
«The Chinese government is taking further steps to curb capital outflows from the country. Because Chinese investors expect that moving money abroad could become even harder, gold is becoming an increasingly attractive vehicle for preserving wealth inside China. This is a major flow that many Western investors are not paying enough attention to».
Gold price: watch India, but also Middle East buying
«A second factor that could become increasingly important in the short to medium term», Arora added, «is India, which remains one of the largest consumers and importers of gold in the world».
The analyst pointed out, however, that «India’s foreign exchange reserves have been put under pressure by the rise in oil prices tied to the war with Iran», adding that «because India imports a substantial share of its energy needs, the government has an interest at this point in reducing other imports to preserve its currency reserves».
Gold imports are therefore «an obvious target». But «gold duties are not popular in India, so any change to those duties could have a significant impact on physical demand and, as a result, on gold prices».
Arora finally flagged that «a third short-term factor concerns the possibility that gold sales from the Middle East decline».
The war has in fact pushed some Middle Eastern countries to sell gold to raise cash, finance military spending or offset losses tied to oil.
If those sales were to shrink, an important source of supply would disappear, supporting gold prices; conversely, further disruptions to oil exports could force governments to sell more bullion.
Medium-term forecasts: for the Fed and gold, the biggest risk is a hawkish surprise
Over the medium term, Arora said he believes the two main drivers will be central bank buying and US interest rates, and therefore, in the latter case, the monetary policy decisions taken by Chair Kevin Warsh: «Inflation, the dollar, geopolitical risk and investor sentiment will all matter», even though, according to the newsletter’s founder, what will matter even more are «the actual capital flows, rather than the narratives that accompany them».
On the US central bank’s role, while it is true that gold prices have already «broadly» priced in the possibility of «a more accommodative Federal Reserve and lower US interest rates», it is equally true that the bigger risk is the diametrically opposite one, because «a more aggressive Fed is not adequately priced into gold».
That implies that «if inflation or other economic conditions forced the Fed to keep a restrictive stance for longer than investors expect, or above all if the Fed were forced to raise interest rates, I would expect gold prices to fall».
In short, «a hawkish surprise is a bigger risk for gold than any further dovish tilt is a new source of upside».
Arora described himself as broadly «bullish on gold», taking care to specify that «there is no single argument, single economic data point or single factor that would lead me to change this view».
Gold price: the short-, medium- and long-term targets
Money.it also spoke with Mamadou Kwidjim Toure, CEO and founder of Ubuntu Tribe, who said that «gold remains attractive», while adding that it would be «prudent not to chase it, after the sharp move above $4,300 an ounce recorded in recent weeks».
Toure’s forecasts now call for gold prices «between $4,250 and $4,600 in the short term, while $5,000 looks to me like an achievable target in the next 6 to 12 months».
Looking further out, «on a two-to-three-year horizon, I would not be surprised to see gold at $5,500».
The factor supporting prices more than any other, in his view, is «central bank buying».
Going forward, prices could be supported more broadly by «lower US rates, especially if real yields fell and the dollar weakened».
Toure agrees, however, that part of the lower-rate scenario is already embedded in prices, and believes that to push gold beyond $4,600 you would need a Fed clearly oriented toward cutting rates.
What could instead trigger a sharp retreat?
For Toure, the biggest threat would be «another inflation shock in the United States», because in that case «the Fed would be forced to keep monetary policy tighter for longer, and the effects could be a renewed rise in real yields and a stronger dollar».
If «central bank demand were to slow as well, then I would turn much more cautious on gold».
Gold price: the strong support at $4,000
Money.it also heard from Brett Elliott, director of the marketing division at APMEX, who believes gold has found strong support at $4,000 through June, July and August. If that floor holds, the metal could return to the $4,500-$4,900 area by year-end — and it is already trading around $4,600.
For Elliott too, it will be «the future direction of monetary policy, with any hikes or cuts in rates, that determines how long gold stays range-bound below $5,000 an ounce».
His view for now is in any case «very bullish», partly for another reason, which has to do with US public finances:
«As long as the United States government keeps spending beyond its means, gold will remain structurally supported over the long term. At the moment there does not appear to be any risk that this situation changes in the near future, though a turn in that direction would certainly be welcome».
Elliott then told Money.it that «if prices were to fall again and move convincingly below $4,000 an ounce, the risk would increase that the bull market ends prematurely, especially because we are entering a period of the year historically marked by strong gold demand, between the Indian wedding season, Chinese New Year and Christmas in the United States, stretches that generally drive an increase in jewelry sales».
Danger for gold from higher inflation, Treasury yields and a stronger dollar
Worth noting too is the comment given to Money.it by Eugenia Mykuliak, founder and executive director of B2PRIME Group, who focused on the uncertainty in markets over what Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will do and say, in a situation where markets themselves «may need time to adjust to his communication style».
Mykuliak recalled that the US consumer price index (CPI) «rose in July compared with June, partly because of oil prices, which have started climbing again», noting that the point is that the situation around the Strait of Hormuz «remains unresolved».
With Brent crude near $90 a barrel, the head of B2PRIME Group warned that inflation proving more persistent than expected could push investors to price in a rate hike in September, with consequent pressure on gold, driven in particular by the likely rise, as a result of monetary tightening, in «Treasury yields and the dollar».
Gold at $6,000-$7,000: the role of Western debt
Also worth noting is the comment from Philip van den Berge, founder and CEO of Intrinsiqq, an equity market analysis platform, who said he is «bullish on gold», presenting three views on what could happen in the short, medium and long term.
«In the short term, I believe this consolidation phase is set to continue, with the factors pushing prices higher (such as Fed decisions) and still-strong demand keeping the price from falling below the $4,100 area».
Over the «medium term, we can expect a slightly more bullish target, in the low $5,000 area», while over the long term «I see a gold price around $6,000-$7,000 as possible, mainly because of rising debt levels in Western countries».
Van den Berge explained that «because governments cannot go on indefinitely carrying enormous debt burdens without causing inflation in their own currencies, gold is the main reference point against the devaluation of fiat currencies».
Among the factors working in the metal’s favor is «accumulation of gold by central banks», which «are buying more gold to protect themselves from the geopolitical consequences affecting currency reserves».
The main threat to a gold rally would instead be, in his view, «an enormous, structural boom in global productivity, driven by innovations in artificial intelligence, automation and the commercialization of clean energy»: such a scenario, in fact, «could reduce production costs and increase profits without causing prices to rise.
As a result, central banks could keep rates stable, pushing investors to shift capital out of gold and into highly profitable equities and corporate bonds».
In that scenario, then, gold could suffer from the absence of the long-awaited US rate cuts, especially if the Fed were to keep monetary policy restrictive for longer than expected.
Editor’s note
This article was originally published in Italian on money.it by Laura Naka Antonelli on August 23, 2026 as «Prezzo oro, nuove previsioni a Money.it. Non solo Fed, cosa guiderà le quotazioni e fino a dove». It has been translated and adapted for an international audience by the Money.it International desk.
