Gold (XAU/USD) is trading lower today, in a range between $4,320 and $4,350 an ounce depending on the reading, giving back much of the rebound triggered in recent hours by reports of possible diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

What’s mainly weighing on the metal are comments from two Federal Reserve officials. Alberto Musalem, president of the St. Louis Fed, told Reuters in an exclusive interview on September 21 that «both persistent demand pressures and recurring supply-side forces continue to keep inflation risks elevated», describing the current benchmark rate (3.75%-4.00%, after last week’s hike) as still «on the accommodative side» and saying he would prefer an earlier, gradual tightening path over later, abrupt moves. Susan Collins, president of the Boston Fed, added on September 22 that she has «not seen the progress on inflation I had hoped to see», reaffirming her support for last week’s 25-basis-point hike and her expectation of another increase before the end of 2026, followed by a pause in 2027.

Both statements confirm what the Fed’s projections already signaled after the September 16 meeting, which pointed to at least one more hike this year. The backdrop remains a PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) inflation rate that climbed to 3.7% annually in July, up from 2.3% in April 2025, a figure Musalem himself cited, driven partly by price shocks in commodities other than oil. In currency markets, the Dollar Index is trading around 100.4-100.5, not far from last Friday’s highs, while the 10-year Treasury yield remains above 4.9% — both factors that make an interest-free asset like gold relatively less attractive.

A quarter below January’s record

Today’s decline is part of a broader correction. Gold hit an all-time high on January 28, 2026, at around $5,590-$5,610 an ounce, driven by months of central-bank treasury buying, persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions. Since then, the price has fallen roughly 23%, partly because of the shift in direction at the Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh, who has progressively signaled a cycle of hikes rather than cuts since the start of the year, and an initial easing of US-Iran tensions in January that had reduced demand for geopolitical hedges. Despite the correction, gold is still up 15.2% year-over-year.

Levels to watch

On the technical side, analysts (Ryan McKay, TD Securities) point to a key support area between $4,300 and $4,320, which coincides with the 100-day moving average, and resistance at $4,395-$4,410; a break above $4,400 would open room toward $4,500-$4,540. Significant uncertainties remain, including the still-unpredictable course of US-Iran talks, with Tehran warning of possible escalation and Washington threatening, starting September 23, to bar Iranian airlines from international flights. Finally, the exact size and timing of the Fed’s next rate hike will depend on incoming economic data, not a path that’s already set.

Editor’s note

This article was originally published in Italian on money.it by Ufficio Studi Money.it on September 22, 2026 as «L’oro scivola sotto i 4.350 dollari. La Fed hawkish frena il rimbalzo pro-diplomazia sull’Iran». It has been translated and adapted for an international audience by the Money.it International desk.