Stock futures pushed higher early Friday, hours before the most important economic release of the week.

S&P 500 futures rose about 0.7% and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added roughly 0.6% shortly after 7 a.m. ET, with Nasdaq 100 contracts lagging after the tech-heavy index slipped 0.4% on Thursday. The gains set up a firmer open, but the real catalyst lands at 8:30 a.m. ET, when the Labor Department releases the July jobs report.

Wall Street is looking for a modest rebound in hiring. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect about 83,000 new nonfarm payrolls, while FactSet’s consensus sits closer to 100,000; a few forecasters see up to 120,000. The unemployment rate is projected to hold at 4.2%, though some economists pencil in a tick up to 4.3%. Average hourly earnings are seen rising around 0.3% for the month.

The bar is low for a reason. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, employers added just 57,000 jobs in June, roughly half of what economists had expected, and payrolls for April and May were revised down by a combined 74,000. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% to $37.64. The unemployment rate actually ticked down to 4.2% that month, but only because the labor force and participation rate both shrank — a soft-for-the-wrong-reasons print that markets read as a warning. Our full breakdown of June’s disappointing 57,000 payrolls lays out how thin the underlying momentum has become.

Why this jobs report cuts both ways

In a normal cycle, a soft jobs number is good news for stocks: it pulls forward expectations of cheaper money. This cycle is not normal.

The Federal Open Market Committee left its target range unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% on July 29, and futures markets are now leaning toward a rate hike — not a cut — in September. As of this week, traders priced roughly a 58% chance of a 25-basis-point increase at the September 16 meeting, down from about 68% on Monday but still the base case. The shift reflects sticky, energy-driven inflation that has kept price pressures above the Fed’s 2% target even as hiring cools. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has signaled he is prepared to raise rates in September if inflation readings due in the coming weeks come in hot.

That flips the usual playbook. A hot payrolls number today could revive hike bets and pressure the same high-multiple technology names that have led the market higher. A cold number would deepen the growth worry but does little to solve the Fed’s inflation problem — leaving stocks caught between a slowing economy and a central bank that is reluctant to ease. Either way, the report is a two-sided risk rather than the one-way ticket lower rates usually offer.

The bond market is already positioning for it. The 10-year Treasury yield hovered near 4.6% on Thursday, down about 10 basis points on the week as traders trimmed hike expectations. A strong jobs print could push yields back up and squeeze rate-sensitive sectors; a weak one could accelerate this week’s decline.

Elsewhere in early trading

Commodities and crypto were firmer alongside equity futures. Brent crude rose about 0.6%, gold gained roughly 0.7%, and Bitcoin climbed above $116,700. Among individual movers, Duolingo jumped nearly 29% and Celsius Holdings rose about 20% in pre-market trading after their quarterly results, with Datadog, Dutch Bros and Guardant Health also posting double-digit gains — a reminder that earnings season is still driving single-stock action underneath the macro headlines.

What to Watch for the Open

  • Headline payrolls vs. the 83,000–100,000 consensus. A print above 150,000 would revive the hawkish trade; below 50,000 would sharpen recession chatter.
  • The unemployment rate. A move to 4.3% or higher would mark the weakest reading of the cycle and complicate the Fed’s hike case.
  • Revisions. After 74,000 was shaved off April and May, another downward revision would matter as much as the headline.
  • Average hourly earnings. A hot wage number (above 0.4%) is the one detail most likely to keep September hike odds alive.
  • The 10-year yield and September fed funds futures. Watch both in the minutes after 8:30 a.m. for the market’s real verdict.

The report drops at 8:30 a.m. ET, one hour before the opening bell — enough time for futures to swing hard in either direction before stocks even start trading.