U.S. stock futures were little changed early Monday, holding near record highs at the start of a busy week.

Futures on the S&P 500 rose about 0.1%, Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.3%, and Dow Jones futures dipped slightly. The moves were small, but they came with the major indexes sitting on fresh records. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,757.64, an all-time high, after a surprise July jobs loss cooled bets on another Federal Reserve rate hike.

Two forces are pulling at the open: a rising oil price and a July inflation report due Wednesday.

Oil rises as the Hormuz deal stalls

Crude prices moved higher after Iran tempered hopes for a fast reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that carries roughly a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil. Brent crude rose 0.8% to $84.23 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate added 0.7% to $78.72.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said over the weekend that a shipping agreement with Oman was “very close,” but ruled out direct talks with Washington for now, citing violations of an interim peace deal reached in June. Tehran has said the strait will stay shut until the U.S. meets a list of conditions — language that kept a risk premium in the price and gave energy traders little reason to relax. For anyone weighing exposure to the sector, how to invest in oil starts with recognizing that geopolitics, not demand, is setting the price right now.

Higher oil matters beyond the pump. Energy feeds directly into inflation, and a sustained climb in crude complicates the Fed’s job just as this week’s price data arrives.

Wednesday’s CPI is the week’s main event

The July Consumer Price Index lands Wednesday, August 12, at 8:30 a.m. ET. It is the release markets are trading around. Consumer prices rose 3.5% over the 12 months through June, well above the Fed’s 2% target, and a hot July print would revive the case for another rate increase.

The Fed’s benchmark rate sits at 3.50%-3.75%. Friday’s employment report showed the economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, against forecasts for a gain of about 95,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, with revisions cutting more than 100,000 jobs from the prior two months. That miss pushed traders toward betting the Fed holds rates in September rather than hiking again — a view Wednesday’s inflation number could confirm or upend.

Global markets and bonds

Overseas trading was calm. The pan-European STOXX 600 held near a record at 660.12, after climbing 1.7% last week. Asian markets were mostly steady overnight, with Hong Kong stocks supported by stronger-than-expected Chinese trade data.

In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note hovered around 4.6%, close to where it settled Friday after the soft jobs data. Lower yields have helped underpin the equity rally, but a strong inflation reading could push them higher and pressure stock valuations already stretched near records.

What to watch for the open

  • Oil headlines: any concrete progress — or breakdown — in the Hormuz talks will move Brent and energy shares fast.
  • CPI positioning: expect thin conviction and light volume Monday and Tuesday as traders wait for Wednesday’s inflation print.
  • Treasury yields: watch the 10-year near 4.6%; a move higher would test the record-high rally.
  • Earnings: CoreWeave reports Tuesday after the close, the week’s clearest read on AI infrastructure demand.

With the S&P 500 at an all-time high, the setup is delicate. A cooler inflation number and an easing in oil could extend the rally. A hot CPI paired with a fresh spike in crude would hand Wall Street its first real test since the record run began.