In August, US non-farm payrolls (NFP) rose by 162,000, nearly triple the 56,000 economists had penciled in.

The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, in line with expectations. The numbers further raised bets on an interest-rate hike from the Federal Reserve at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 15-16.

A solid labor market, and a rise in workforce participation

The jobs report pointed to a solid US labor market, partly dispelling the concerns that had dominated last month, when July’s NFP print was revised to show a decline of 23,000.

The US Department of Labor also announced a net upward revision to payrolls for the prior two months, adding 55,000 jobs.

Labor-force participation also improved, rising to 61.6% in August from 61.4% previously.

Wage-driven inflation pressures came in slightly hotter than expected on an annual basis, with average hourly earnings up 3.1% year-over-year, versus a 3% consensus forecast.

On a monthly basis, average hourly earnings growth was in line with expectations, at 0.3%.

Average hours worked came in at 34.4, up from 34.3 previously.

Job growth in both the private and public sectors

The NFP report showed private-sector payrolls rising by 127,000, more than double the 45,000 expected and up from a previous increase of 30,000.

Manufacturing payrolls stood out in particular, up 16,000 versus an expected gain of 5,000. Public-sector jobs rose by 35,000, reversing the prior reading’s decline of 53,000.

The non-farm payrolls report, one of this week’s key market movers, reinforces speculation of a rate hike from the Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh at the September 15-16 meeting.

The previous day, hopes that rates would be left unchanged had been supported by comments from Fed Governor Chris Waller, who told Reuters in an interview that he would be willing to back the status quo if inflation continued to gradually ease.

Waller said the outcome of the next Fed meeting will hinge above all on August’s US inflation data — the consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) — due for release just before the Federal Reserve’s meeting.

In his remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh had already signaled a firm determination to bring inflation growth back to the 2% target.

Meanwhile, keep an eye on how key assets reacted to the non-farm payrolls release: the dollar strengthened, with the euro-dollar exchange rate down 0.22% at $1.1598.

The reaction in US Treasury yields was immediate, with 2-year yields climbing to their highest level since January 2025.

Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, echoed Waller’s view that inflation data will be the key driver of the Fed under Warsh’s next moves on rates. Ahead of the payrolls release, she said: «An upside surprise on jobs will likely fuel rate-hike fears, but the outcome will depend on next week’s inflation data».

Zentner added that «if the data were to come in weaker than expected, the Fed would likely feel comfortable treating the potentially inflationary signals from the labor market as less significant».

US inflation data are due out next week, with the producer price index set for release on Thursday, September 10. The consumer price index will follow the next day, Friday, September 11.

Editor’s note

This article was originally published in Italian on money.it by Laura Naka Antonelli on September 04, 2026 as «Non Farm Payrolls +162.000 ad agosto, il triplo delle stime. Ma nodo tassi Fed sarà sciolto solo dopo questi 2 dati». It has been translated and adapted for an international audience by the Money.it International desk.