Which stocks are worth watching in August 2026, after a July that ended with a clean fracture between the two sides of the Atlantic?
On Wall Street, earnings season lit what analysts are calling the «reckoning» over artificial-intelligence capital spending. Meta reported revenue of $60.8 billion (+28%), yet the stock lost roughly 8%: capital-expenditure guidance was raised to $130–145 billion (from the previous $125–145 billion) and margins came under pressure. Apple, which has chosen spending discipline, took back from Nvidia the crown as the world’s most valuable company. The market’s message has changed: after three years in which simply growing was enough, what now counts is how you grow, with how much cash and how much debt. Aggregate Big Tech spending on AI is on track for roughly $660 billion in a single year, up sharply from about $380 billion the year before, and investors have started demanding to see revenue before continuing to fund the promise.
In Milan, the opposite happened. While the Nasdaq shed about 9% over the month, the FTSE MIB closed July slightly higher, at record levels above 53,000 points, the best-performing index in Europe. It was driven by banks, energy, and defense, the very sectors the new backdrop puts at center stage.
Because August’s setup is this: on July 23 the European Central Bank (ECB) left rates unchanged after its June hike, with a hawkish tone, and the market is now pricing a possible new increase in September. Brent crude, after the flare-up in the conflict between the United States and Iran in mid-July, is trading around $88–91, with the Strait of Hormuz once again under pressure. Two things have changed versus a month ago: oil is no longer a risk «behind us», it is a factor again; and the market is rewarding those who generate cash, not those who promise future growth on borrowed money.
How to read August’s stocks (without chasing the rally)
This is not a list of stocks to buy, but of companies to understand before deciding. Four factors help.
How much is already in the price? With Milan at record highs and the banks up double digits in July alone, the number-one risk is arriving late. High multiples are not a problem in themselves: they become one when they already price in years of growth, because a single guidance miss is enough to send a stock down. The most useful signal comes from earnings: the most solid companies are the ones that hold up even after results that are good but not exceptional.
Margins, not just revenue. A company that sells more while compressing its margins is more fragile than one that grows little but raises prices without losing customers.
Cash. A company that generates liquidity every quarter can reinvest, pay dividends, or buy back its own shares, and can ride out tough phases without depending on banks. That is exactly the profile the market is rewarding right now.
One risk at a time. The most exposed stocks today depend on a single factor: AI capex, Hormuz, or interest rates. Better to favor those that don’t stack all three.
The stocks to watch in August (and why)
What follows is not a ranking, but a way to group the names by the force that moves them (rates, oil, rearmament, defensives, AI) so you can see at a glance what each bet is really riding on.
Banks: Intesa Sanpaolo and UniCredit
Milan’s two banking giants have just closed the best half-years in their history. Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP) ended the first half with €5.55 billion (about $6.0 billion) in net profit (+6.5%) and a record second quarter of €2.79 billion (about $3.0 billion), above expectations, raising its 2026 guidance to more than €10 billion (about $10.8 billion); its cost/income ratio fell to 35.9%. UniCredit (UCG) did the same: €6.37 billion (about $6.9 billion) in first-half profit, a return on tangible equity (ROTE) of around 23%, guidance revised to about €11.5 billion (about $12.4 billion), and a large interim dividend, while lifting its stake in Germany’s Commerzbank to 48%.
Watch one point, though, that changes the thesis versus a year ago: net interest income is now essentially flat (slightly lower at UniCredit), because Euribor has come down from its peaks. The push is now coming from fees, efficiency, capital returns, and the banking «risiko» (Italian for the merger chess game, from Intesa’s tender offer on MPS to the maneuvering around Generali).
So it is no longer «one more point of rates equals more margin», but quality of revenue and distribution. The flip side: the stocks have run a long way and trade at record highs. The first question matters more than ever, how much is already in the price. UniCredit’s reaction was a reminder, falling on the very day of record results because of the capital absorbed by Commerzbank.
Energy: Eni
Oil, written off as «behind us» back in June, is a protagonist again. Eni (ENI) has benefited: adjusted net profit more than doubled in the second quarter to €2.33 billion (about $2.5 billion) (+106%), production reached 1.79 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, the buyback was increased 20% to €3.4 billion (about $3.7 billion), and a special dividend is floated for October. CEO Claudio Descalzi claimed growth «clearly greater» than the price scenario itself.
The logic is the reverse of a month ago: with Hormuz hot again, leverage to upstream becomes an advantage, not a risk to avoid. The weak point is unchanged: dependence on crude cuts both ways, and a durable truce would push Brent back down.
Defense: Leonardo
The sector is flying on rearmament and on war turned active again. Leonardo (LDO) closed the half with adjusted profit up 74% to €476 million (about $514 million), orders of €16.3 billion (about $17.6 billion) (+45%), and a backlog of nearly €59 billion (about $64 billion), raising guidance on orders, EBITA, and cash generation.
It is the mirror image of July’s verdict, when the stock was being discarded after its correction from March highs: today the fundamentals and the backdrop put it back in play. The risk is volatility: defense is hypersensitive to news flow, rising and falling on headlines from the front, and it must be watched knowing the swings are wide.
The defensives far from the three risks: Roche and Nestlé
When the market is driven by AI capex, rates, and oil, it makes sense to look at names that are almost independent of all three. Switzerland’s Roche Holding AG closed the first half with revenue up 6% at constant currency (CHF 30.4 billion, about $38 billion) and core operating profit up 10% — profitability growing faster than revenue, with pharma’s customary pricing power. Guidance was confirmed. The risk here is not macro but specific, tied to individual molecules and to drug-price pressure in the United States; the strong franc weighs on reported figures.
Nestlé (NESN) remains a consumer defensive, but with a note of realism. Organic growth recovered to 3.6% in the half and cash flow rose, but net profit fell on restructuring costs and writedowns, and the group warned that in the second half, transport and energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict will weigh on margins. Even the most defensive names, in short, are not entirely immune to the oil shock. The full-year guidance, however, is confirmed.
The one AI bet, but with judgment: ASML
If you want exposure to the semiconductor theme, ASML is the most defensible: a near-monopoly on lithography machines, second-quarter revenue of €9.3 billion (about $10 billion) with a 54% gross margin, and 2026 guidance raised to €43–45 billion (about $46–49 billion) (from the €36–40 billion indicated in April), with order visibility running to 2027–2028.
Here, though, the first question weighs more than anywhere else — the stock is up about 65% since the start of the year and near its highs, the first European group above $700 billion in market value. Excellent fundamentals, but much of the growth is already in the price, and the exposure to broad chip sentiment remains. One to weight in a portfolio, not to overweight.
Which stocks to watch in August 2026
August’s setup seems to reward three profiles: those that monetize still-high rates without having to chase them (the banks, now more on fee income than on net interest margin), those that ride a newly volatile oil price (Eni), and those that benefit from rearmament (Leonardo), flanked by pure defensives (Roche, Nestlé) and by a single, measured exposure to AI (ASML).
The through-line is not «buy stocks», but understand what each name depends on, and remember that, with Milan at record highs, the most concrete risk today is not choosing the wrong company, but entering at the wrong moment.
Disclaimer — This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation of public savings or personalized financial advice. The quotations and figures cited are as of the end of July 2026 and can change rapidly. Before any investment decision, it is advisable to consult a licensed financial advisor.
Editor’s note
This article was originally published in Italian on money.it by Ufficio Studi Money.it on August 05, 2026 as «Quali azioni monitorare ad agosto 2026?». It has been translated and adapted for an international audience by the Money.it International desk.
