On Wednesday, gold prices edged back into positive territory, reversing early-session losses, after the precious metal closed its worst quarter in 13 years over the three months ending June 30. Gold futures were hovering just above breakeven at $4,041.30, while spot prices climbed 0.49% to $4,025.89 — still far below the all-time high of $5,586.20 hit on January 29.
The number that rattled investors is unambiguous: roughly 16% of gold’s value evaporated in the quarter ending June 30, the worst quarterly performance since Q2 2013. Year-to-date, the metal has shed 7.76% — a stunning reversal for an asset that just months earlier seemed unstoppable. In 2025, gold had surged approximately 70%, notching more than 50 all-time highs.
The reasons behind gold’s crash
Multiple factors converged. Giovanni Staunovo, commodities analyst at UBS, explained that gold’s traditional safe-haven appeal was offset by better-than-expected US economic data, higher real yields, a stronger dollar, and a less accommodative stance from the Federal Reserve on the rate path.
The Fed’s June meeting marked a sharp pivot from early-year expectations. Several committee members signaled the need for at least one rate hike before the end of 2026, upending forecasts that had pointed to cuts. Adding to the pressure: the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 4.467%, and a dollar strengthened by expectations of tighter monetary policy. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for foreign buyers, eroding its appeal.
A paradox: geopolitics didn’t save gold
The data is all the more striking given the geopolitical backdrop. The conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran — and the Strait of Hormuz crisis — should, in theory, have driven investors straight toward gold, the canonical safe haven. Instead, the opposite happened.
Some market analyses suggest gold stopped behaving like a classic safe haven and started trading more like an asset tied to global reserve flows. Those flows abruptly reversed, driven less by a search for security and more by fears of a global economic slowdown. After a provisional US-Iran peace agreement was signed in June, oil prices returned to pre-conflict levels, removing the inflationary pressure that had initially underpinned gold’s run.
Central banks still buying — but analysts cut targets
Despite the quarterly crash, gold continues to play a key role in institutional portfolios. In its mid-year global outlook, Amundi identified three structural factors that should support gold demand through the second half of 2026: a monetary policy environment that is harder to read, elevated public debt levels in advanced economies, and continued central bank diversification away from dollar-denominated assets.
The World Gold Council’s annual survey on central bank gold reserves confirms the trend: a growing number of central banks globally are preparing to increase their gold holdings over the coming year.
Not everyone is equally optimistic about the timing of any recovery, however. Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING, has revised her forecasts downward, now estimating a Q3 2026 average price of $4,300 and a Q4 average of $4,600 — below her earlier projections of $4,850 and $5,000 respectively.
The broad analyst consensus lands on one point: this is not a structural collapse, but a correction after an extraordinary year — one amplified by technical mechanics such as profit-taking, stop-loss triggers, and ETF outflows that can feed on themselves in the short run.
Editor’s note
This article was originally published in Italian on money.it by Alessandro Nuzzo on July 04, 2026 as «Ti spiego perché l’oro ha avuto il peggior trimestre degli ultimi 13 anni». It has been translated and adapted for an international audience by the Money.it International desk.
