U.S. stock futures were mixed early Thursday as Wall Street parsed another wall of earnings and a fresh pullback in the AI trade.

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 0.25%, keeping the blue-chip index within reach of the record high it set this week. S&P 500 futures added 0.12%, while Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.39%. Small-cap Russell 2000 futures were roughly flat, up 0.03%.

The split tape tells the story of the moment: money is rotating out of high-flying technology and into cyclical and defensive sectors. On Wednesday, health care, financials and materials led the S&P 500 higher, while energy and communication services lagged.

AI-memory names lead the Nasdaq lower

The drag on the Nasdaq came from the same corner of the market that powered its 2026 rally. SanDisk (SNDK) fell about 9% in premarket trade and Western Digital (WDC) dropped nearly 15%, both giving back gains after reporting earnings that failed to clear a very high bar. The two NAND-memory makers had roughly tripled and quintupled, respectively, earlier this year on booming demand for data-center storage.

The wobble follows Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), which slid 7% on Tuesday even after doubling its data-center revenue, as investors questioned whether capital-spending plans justify the stocks’ valuations. It is the latest sign that, much as chip stocks led a recent futures rebound, the AI trade now cuts both ways when results merely meet expectations.

Software names added to the pressure. AppLovin (APP) tumbled about 15% on a second-quarter revenue miss, and HubSpot (HUBS) plunged more than 20% despite upbeat quarterly results and sales — a reminder of how little room for error the market is giving richly valued growth stocks.

Oil eases as Hormuz talks advance

Overseas, crude prices slipped after Iran said an Oman-brokered agreement on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was in its final stages. Brent crude traded near $79.91 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate hovered around $75.57. Washington has continued to resist any deal that would hand Tehran control over access to the waterway, and significant sticking points remain over cargo fees, so the geopolitical risk premium has not fully drained away.

Gold rose 0.49% to about $4,267 an ounce, and the U.S. dollar index edged up to 99.75. Bitcoin traded near $64,800.

Bonds signal a hawkish Fed

The bond market is still bracing for a central bank in tightening mode. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.62% and the 2-year at 4.20%. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders are pricing a 54.9% probability that the Federal Reserve raises rates at its September meeting — an unusually hawkish setup that keeps borrowing costs elevated across the economy. The picture matters for equities because a higher-for-longer rate regime pressures the same long-duration tech names now leading the market lower.

The BlackRock Investment Institute said this week it remains overweight U.S. stocks, betting that AI-driven corporate profitability will outweigh higher borrowing costs — even as it flags a “high-for-longer” backdrop of sticky inflation and heavy government borrowing.

Overnight and the data ahead

Asian markets closed mostly lower. Japan’s Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, South Korea’s Kospi and China’s CSI 300 all fell, while India’s Nifty 50 and Australia’s ASX 200 bucked the trend. European markets were mostly higher in early trade.

The data calendar is the swing factor. Preliminary second-quarter productivity and unit labor costs, along with initial jobless claims for the week ended Aug. 1, are due at 8:30 a.m. ET. June wholesale trade data follows at 10:00 a.m. ET. Claims have taken on added weight after the labor market disappointed badly last month, and a soft print would harden the case for slowing growth even as the Fed leans toward higher rates.

What to Watch for the Open

  • Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. ET: a rise toward or above 250,000 would revive growth worries; a low print supports the “resilient labor market” narrative.
  • Chip and memory stocks: watch whether SanDisk, Western Digital and AMD stabilize or drag the Nasdaq deeper into the red.
  • Oil and Hormuz headlines: any confirmed shipping deal could push Brent below $79 and lift airlines and transports.
  • Treasury yields: a move in the 10-year back above 4.70% would tighten financial conditions and cap the rotation into cyclicals.

For investors weighing concentration risk, note how much of the tape still rides on a handful of megacaps — a dynamic that has made S&P 500 ETFs that strip out the “Magnificent 7” a talking point whenever the AI trade stumbles.

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