U.S. stock futures slipped Monday as Wall Street reopened from the Juneteenth break. Contracts on the S&P 500 fell about 0.1%, Dow futures edged lower and Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed, pointing to a muted open after a long holiday weekend.

The cautious tone followed a diplomatic breakthrough over the weekend. U.S. and Iranian negotiators meeting in Switzerland agreed Sunday on a roadmap toward a final deal within 60 days, mediators Pakistan and Qatar said, opening a two-month window to end a war that has run more than 100 days. The talks were led by U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Iranian parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

For markets, the most immediate read-through was in energy. Brent crude eased back toward $80 a barrel Monday after briefly topping $81, while West Texas Intermediate traded near $76, as traders judged the risk of a supply shock to be receding. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran had secured waivers for oil and petrochemical exports as part of the framework, a sign more barrels could flow if the truce holds.

Why oil is steering the open

The slide in crude matters well beyond gas pumps. A sustained drop in energy prices feeds directly into headline inflation and eases one of the cost pressures the Fed has flagged most often this year. But the move is fragile: much of the recent risk premium has hinged on the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil passes, and any sign the reopening is unraveling could send prices back up fast.

Iran’s weight in the global market is the reason traders are watching every headline. The country sits on some of the world’s largest crude reserves and, as an OPEC member, supplies a meaningful share of global output. Export waivers that bring sanctioned barrels back online would loosen supply at the margin — bullish for stocks, bearish for crude — but only if the 60-day roadmap survives contact with reality.

The week’s main event: Thursday’s PCE report

The bigger test for the rally arrives Thursday, when the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index for May at 8:30 a.m. EDT. The PCE index is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, and economists expect core PCE — which strips out food and energy — to show a modest acceleration from April.

The stakes are higher than usual because of how the Fed framed its last decision. At Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting on June 17, the Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to hold its benchmark rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, but the updated “dot plot” turned hawkish: the median projection now sees the federal funds rate ending 2026 at 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March, with nine of 18 officials penciling in at least one rate hike before year-end. Warsh declined to submit a projection of his own, telling reporters, “I did not submit a dot for me,” and calling the exercise unhelpful “in the conduct of policy.”

That leaves the data to do the talking. A hot PCE print would harden the case for the hike the dot plot now implies and could pressure rate-sensitive corners of the market; a cooler reading would buy the Fed room to wait. Investors looking to understand how the central bank dials its policy stance up and down can review how its tools work in this explainer on tapering and the Fed’s policy toolkit.

Earnings: FedEx and Micron in focus

Two marquee earnings reports bracket the inflation data. FedEx reports fiscal fourth-quarter results Tuesday, its first as a pure-play parcel and logistics company following the June 1 spinoff of its freight unit; the package giant is widely read as a barometer for industrial demand and consumer shipping. Micron Technology follows Wednesday with fiscal third-quarter results, a key check on the artificial-intelligence trade after the chipmaker’s high-bandwidth memory business powered a roughly 280% stock surge this year.

Major indexes enter the week near record territory — the Dow closed within striking distance of 52,000 earlier in June — leaving little cushion if either the earnings or the inflation data disappoint.

What to watch this week

  • Monday-Tuesday: Oil’s reaction to any new headlines out of the Switzerland talks; a renewed spike in crude would revive inflation worries.
  • Tuesday: FedEx fiscal Q4 earnings after the close — guidance on shipping volumes is the tell on consumer and industrial demand.
  • Wednesday: Micron fiscal Q3 results — the cleanest read this week on AI-memory demand.
  • Thursday, 8:30 a.m. EDT: May PCE price index. Core PCE is the number that matters; a hotter print revives rate-hike bets, a cooler one calms them.
  • All week: The 10-year Treasury yield and the dollar, which will move on every inflation and Fed-speak headline.

Bottom line: a quiet open masks a loaded calendar. With the Fed leaning hawkish and stocks priced for perfection, Thursday’s inflation reading is the hinge the rest of the week turns on.