Wall Street starts August with momentum on its side.

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,489.72, up 0.7% on the day, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 1% to 25,373.85 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 276.97 points, or 0.53%, to 52,485.03. The Dow booked its fourth straight winning month. The gains came even as bond yields pushed higher, with a 15% jump in Amazon (AMZN) after a strong earnings report offsetting a 7% drop in Apple (AAPL), which disappointed on Services and China revenue.

The S&P 500 is now up more than 9% in 2026, and earnings season has been the main fuel. Of the roughly 300 index members that have reported, 85% have topped expectations, and blended profits are on track to grow about 29% from a year ago, according to Reuters. The question this week is whether the data lets the rally continue.

The main event: Friday’s jobs report

The week’s marquee release lands Friday, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the July employment report. Economists polled by Reuters expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 91,000, with the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.3%. That would mark a rebound from June, when payrolls rose just 57,000, barely half of forecasts and a warning sign on the labor market.

The number carries extra weight because of where the Federal Reserve now stands. On July 29, the Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% for a second straight meeting, but the vote was a divided 9-3, with three regional presidents dissenting in favor of a rate hike. It was the second meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh, who has stripped forward guidance from the Fed’s statements. “I asked for a good family fight and I got one,” Warsh told reporters afterward. A hot jobs print could harden the case for the hawks and revive bets on higher rates — an unusual risk for a market long trained to expect cuts.

The rest of the calendar

Two other data points frame the week. On Monday, the ISM manufacturing index for July offers an early read on factory activity. On Tuesday, June JOLTS job openings and the June trade balance round out the macro slate before Friday’s payrolls. With price pressures still the Fed’s central concern, any upside surprise on wages will move rate expectations, and the stakes are higher while inflation stays above the 2% target.

A heavy earnings week

Corporate results keep coming. Eli Lilly and Walt Disney report before the open on Wednesday, August 5, with the drugmaker’s GLP-1 franchise and Disney’s streaming margins in focus. Advanced Micro Devices headlines the chip calendar, a key tell for the AI trade after chip stocks led a recent futures rebound. Palantir, McDonald’s, Kraft Heinz and Costco Wholesale also report, and SpaceX posts its first quarterly numbers as a public company after a rocky post-IPO stretch.

Bonds and the dollar

The move in Treasurys is worth watching. Yields climbed into the weekend even as stocks rallied, a sign the market is repricing the odds that the Fed stays higher for longer. A firm jobs report on Friday would likely push yields further and test the stock market’s tolerance for tighter policy.

What to Watch This Week

  • Monday: July ISM manufacturing index
  • Tuesday: June JOLTS job openings, June trade balance; SpaceX’s first report as a public company
  • Wednesday: Eli Lilly and Disney earnings before the open
  • Through the week: AMD, Palantir, McDonald’s, Kraft Heinz and Costco results
  • Friday: July jobs report — nonfarm payrolls (est. +91,000) and unemployment (est. 4.3%)
  • Wildcard: Treasury yields and any Fed speakers reinforcing the hawkish tilt

For investors, the setup is straightforward. Records are within reach, but a strong labor market has become a double-edged sword: good for corporate earnings, dangerous for anyone still betting the Fed is finished.