LVMH (Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton) reported third-quarter 2026 revenue on Monday, October 12: €18.5 billion (about $20.0 billion), up 1% organically, against a consensus that expected a pace closer to 5% for the luxury sector as a whole, according to the latest estimates from Bernstein. Over the first nine months of the year, revenue came in at €57.1 billion (about $61.7 billion), down 2% on a reported basis (+2% at constant currency and scope) from the €58.1 billion (about $62.7 billion) of the same period in 2025. The market took an extra day to react: after a first session that closed up 1.18% at €384.50, traders were expecting an opening decline of roughly 3% on Tuesday morning, October 13, according to Reuters, with the stock trading at €381.75 at the time of writing, down 0.72% from Monday’s close.

Leather goods and the China problem

The group led by Bernard Arnault is still carried by four of its five divisions, all of them growing: Watches & Jewelry (+6% organic in the quarter), Selective Retailing (+8%), Wines & Spirits (+6%) and Perfumes & Cosmetics (+1%). The problem is that the fifth, Fashion & Leather Goods, is also the largest and the most profitable: it is worth €8.2 billion (about $8.9 billion) in the third quarter alone, roughly 47% of group revenue and, according to a Bernstein estimate picked up by the German press, as much as 72% of operating profit. And that is precisely where the quarter went worst: -5% organic, after -2% over the first nine months, with revenue down to €8.2 billion from €8.8 billion (about $9.5 billion) a year earlier, according to the group’s official release.

Chief financial officer Cécile Cabanis, in the role since February 2025, attributed the decline mainly to what she described as «a more challenging consumption environment, driven by macroeconomic factors, among Chinese customers», adding that part of the slowdown at Louis Vuitton came from «a logistics and transport disruption» of a one-off nature, which on its own would have cost more than a percentage point of growth in the quarter. In its official release, the group refers more broadly to a «less favorable» environment in China, while the United States, Europe and Japan are said to have delivered growth described as «good», without any figures by geography.

A year of steady cuts to estimates

This quarter does not arrive in isolation: it belongs to a sequence of downward revisions that has been running since the start of 2026. In January, Morgan Stanley cut its rating on LVMH to Equal-weight from Overweight, citing the risk of new US tariffs on European luxury goods then being threatened by the American administration, and trimming its 2026 earnings-per-share estimate to €23.6 from €24. In March, French broker Oddo BHF lowered its price target to €583 from €695, forecasting a «very gradual» improvement in business and shaving its 2026 organic growth estimate for the group to 3.8% from 4.3%.

In September, Bernstein cut its organic growth estimates for LVMH for 2026 and 2027 by a further 66 basis points each, while keeping an Outperform rating with a €570 price target. Now, after Monday’s results, the average price target compiled from 28 analysts fell over the course of the session to €498.22 from €511.18, according to a TradingView calculation. The overall stance remains constructive — 19 «buy» and 12 «hold», with no «sell» among the 31 analysts covering the stock — but the bar has been lowered for the fourth time in ten months.

This is not the first time the market has asked whether the sector is turning: back in January 2024, with the first signs of a global demand slowdown appearing, Money.it noted that LVMH’s corrections had often been buying opportunities in the past, while warning that no recovery is ever guaranteed in advance. Almost three years on, with the stock down more than 40% since the start of 2026, that question is still open. The difference this time is that the slowdown no longer concerns only the United States or Europe, but the Chinese market that has underpinned growth across the entire sector for a decade.

The group, for its part, rejects the idea of a response on price. Management spoke of a balance to be maintained between a brand’s «desirability» and the «perceived value» for the customer, ruling out discounts or list-price cuts as a lever to revive volumes. It is a strategic choice consistent with the group’s historical positioning, but one that leaves the job of turning the numbers around to a recovery in Chinese demand rather than to pricing.

Editor’s note

This article was originally published in Italian on money.it by Flavia Provenzani on October 13, 2026 as «LVMH delude nel terzo trimestre. La Cina frena ancora, azioni in calo dopo un 2026 già difficile». It has been translated and adapted for an international audience by the Money.it International desk.