US stock futures climbed Monday as a weekend turn toward diplomacy in the Middle East lifted risk appetite and pulled oil prices sharply lower.

Contracts on the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% before the open, while Nasdaq-100 futures gained roughly 0.6% and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added more than 200 points, according to CNBC pre-market data. The move extends a solid year for US equities: the S&P 500 is up more than 8% in 2026.

The catalyst came from Washington over the weekend. President Trump said he called off a “massive attack” on Iran and that peace talks would resume Monday, with the goal of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and defuse the standoff over Iran’s nuclear program. Investors read the de-escalation as a removal of near-term tail risk for both oil supply and global growth.

Oil slides, easing the inflation picture

The clearest market reaction showed up in energy. West Texas Intermediate crude sank about 5% to around $80 a barrel, while Brent, the international benchmark, fell roughly 4% to near $84. The drop reverses part of the war premium that had built up while the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint that carries about a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil — stayed effectively shut.

Cheaper crude matters beyond the energy sector. Lower oil feeds through to gasoline and shipping costs, which cools headline inflation and, in turn, shapes how much room the Federal Reserve has to move on rates. Traders also nudged Treasurys higher and yields lower on the easing geopolitical risk.

Still, the truce is fragile. Iran’s Foreign Ministry said a new shipping arrangement with Oman does italicnot/italic mean the Strait itself will reopen, leaving room for the oil trade to reverse if talks stall.

The jobs report is Friday’s main event

The macro calendar builds to a single number: the July employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, due Friday, August 7.

The stakes are high because the labor market has been softening. The prior release stunned Wall Street: June nonfarm payrolls came in at just +57,000, about half of what economists expected, as detailed in Money.it’s breakdown of the June jobs miss. A second weak print would intensify the debate over the Fed’s next move under new Chair Kevin Warsh, who has held rates steady and repeated his intent to push inflation back to the 2% target.

A hot number would revive worries that the Fed stays on hold longer; a soft number would strengthen the case that the economy — not inflation — is now the bigger risk.

A blockbuster earnings week

Corporate results share the spotlight. Several heavyweight names report over the next few sessions:

  • AMD (NASDAQ: AMD) reports Tuesday, August 4, after the close. Management has guided to revenue of about $11.2 billion, which would mark roughly 46% growth from a year earlier — a test for the semiconductor rally that has powered the Nasdaq, echoing the chip-led rebound flagged in Money.it’s recent look at Nasdaq futures and the chip complex.
  • Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) reports before Wednesday’s open, with analysts focused on full-year guidance and revenue tracking around $20 billion, as the GLP-1 leader’s Mounjaro and Zepbound franchises keep growing against pressure from Novo Nordisk.
  • Caterpillar and Elon Musk’s SpaceX — filing its first quarterly report since going public — round out a week that could reset sentiment across semiconductors, pharma and industrials.

What to watch for the open

  • Oil: whether WTI holds near $80 or bounces on any sign the Hormuz talks are breaking down.
  • Rates: the 10-year Treasury yield, which slipped as risk premiums eased.
  • Earnings reactions: AMD after Tuesday’s close is the first big test for the AI-and-chips trade.
  • Friday’s payrolls: the number most likely to set the tone for August and the Fed’s September meeting.

For now, the tape is leaning risk-on. But with a fragile Middle East truce, a wobbly labor market and marquee earnings all landing in the same week, the calm before the open may not last through Friday.

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