U.S. stock futures barely moved early Tuesday as Wall Street turned its attention to the Federal Reserve.

Contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up about 0.1%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures hovered near flat. The calm followed a strong Monday, when the S&P 500 climbed 1.7% to close at 7,554.29 and the Nasdaq Composite jumped more than 3% after the United States and Iran reached a deal that eased weeks of Middle East tension.

The main event arrives this week. The Federal Open Market Committee begins a two-day meeting Tuesday and will announce its rate decision Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by a press conference. It is the first meeting led by Kevin Warsh, who was sworn in as Fed chair on May 22, 2026, after a 54-45 Senate vote.

Will the Fed cut rates?

Almost certainly not. Markets place the odds of no change at roughly 99%, leaving the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. The Fed held there at its April meeting, when it said it “decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent” and noted that “inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices.”

That inflation picture has since worsened. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index rose 4.2% in May from a year earlier, the fastest pace in three years, while core prices excluding food and energy gained 2.9%. Energy costs were the main driver, up 23.5% over 12 months after an oil shock tied to the Iran conflict. The hot data has all but erased bets on rate cuts in 2026, and strong economic readings have repeatedly undercut the case for easing.

Why this meeting still matters

The decision may be a foregone conclusion, but the details are not. June is a quarterly meeting, so the Fed will release a fresh Summary of Economic Projections and an updated “dot plot” showing where officials expect rates to head. Investors will scan those forecasts for any sign the central bank is pushing cuts further into 2027 — or even weighing a hike.

Warsh’s debut is the wild card. A frequent critic of how the Fed communicates, he has signaled he wants to simplify the central bank’s message to markets. His first press conference will be parsed for tone, and for whether the policy statement keeps or drops the “easing bias” that divided officials in April.

Rate-sensitive corners of the market are already on edge. The 10-year Treasury yield has hovered near 4.7%, and the 30-year yield touched 5.2% last month, its highest in nearly two decades, as bond investors price in stickier inflation. Higher yields raise the bar for equities, especially the megacap technology trade that has powered the index and the broader run of Wall Street’s biggest AI bets.

What to watch for the open

  • 2:00 p.m. ET Wednesday: the rate decision and the new dot plot.
  • Warsh’s press conference: his first read on the policy path and the energy-driven inflation spike.
  • The statement language: whether the “easing bias” survives.
  • Treasury yields and oil prices, which will set the tone before the cash open each day.

For now, the message from futures is patience. With no change widely expected and the real news landing Wednesday afternoon, traders look content to wait — and let Warsh do the talking.

Sources: Federal Reserve, FOMC statement, April 29, 2026; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, May 2026; CNBC; MarketWatch; Reuters.